ASCVD risk calculator (Pooled Cohort Equations)
Enter age, sex, cholesterol, blood pressure and a few yes/no factors to estimate the 10-year risk of a first atherosclerotic cardiovascular event (heart attack, coronary death or stroke) with the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations. It is an estimate for information, not a diagnosis.
Runs in your browser: nothing you enter is sent anywhere.
How to use it
- Choose sex and the equation set, and enter age (40 to 79).
- Enter total and HDL cholesterol in mg/dL or mmol/L and the systolic (top) blood pressure.
- Tick blood pressure treatment, smoking and diabetes if they apply.
- Read the 10-year risk and its band.
How it works
For each of the four groups the equations add up coefficient × term over the natural logarithms of age, total cholesterol, HDL and systolic pressure, some products of these with ln(age), plus smoking and diabetes. The risk is then
risk = 1 − S₀^exp(sum − mean)
where S₀ is the group’s baseline 10-year survival (for example 0.9665 for white women and 0.9144 for white men) and the mean is the group’s average sum. Cholesterol in mmol/L is multiplied by 38.67 before the logarithm.
Worked example
The guideline’s own example: age 55, total cholesterol 213 mg/dL, HDL 50 mg/dL, untreated systolic pressure 120 mmHg, non-smoker, no diabetes.
| Group |
10-year risk |
| White woman |
2.1 % (low) |
| African American woman |
3.0 % (low) |
| White man |
5.4 % (borderline) |
| African American man |
6.1 % (borderline) |
For the white man the published table shows 5.3 %; the small gap comes from the rounded coefficients.
Tips
- Use your usual blood pressure, not a single high reading at a stressful visit.
- Risk rises steeply with age, so recheck every few years.
- Other factors the equations do not include, such as family history of early heart disease or chronic kidney disease, can raise your real risk.
- This is an estimate for information, not a diagnosis or a treatment decision.
Frequently asked questions
Why does the calculator ask about race?
The 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations were fitted separately for four groups: white women, African American women, white men and African American men. Race is an input of that published model, so the calculator offers both coefficient sets. For people of other backgrounds the guideline uses the white equations, which may over- or underestimate their risk.
Who is the calculator for?
Adults aged 40 to 79 without known cardiovascular disease (no previous heart attack or stroke). For people who already have it, the risk is high by definition and the equations do not apply.
What do the risk bands mean?
The 2018 ACC/AHA cholesterol guideline groups 10-year risk as low (below 5 %), borderline (5 to 7.4 %), intermediate (7.5 to 19.9 %) and high (20 % or more). The band guides the conversation about lifestyle and medicines; it does not decide treatment by itself.
Does it work outside the US?
The equations were built on US cohorts. Many countries use their own tools, such as SCORE2 in Europe or QRISK in the UK, which may suit their populations better.
Should I enter my treated or untreated blood pressure?
Enter your current systolic reading and tick the medication box if you take blood pressure pills. The model has separate terms for treated and untreated pressure.